Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?

No92%
Yes9%

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24h volume$87.4
7d volume$2.7K
30d volume$12.1K
Liquidity$11K
Spread1%
ResolvesOct 1, 2026tomorrow

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to Critical will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. Polymarket publishes an expected resolution timestamp of October 1, 2026 at 03:59 UTC, while PredictFun does not publish one; this does not materially change the stated question or deadline.
  • Polymarketthis market

    Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to Critical will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    71 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 23, 08:50 AM UTC

  • PredictFunOpen →

    Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to Critical will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    read Sep 29, 05:22 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026?Polymarket71% NoOpen
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders71
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments0

Best bid 19% · best ask 20%

Top holders

  • nope305040325645480876798584693908481813858556901201944365443348302504675413060526545
  • theta-thunberg29561567971800258739937690207447739307438550216441108401236498566030764732276
  • JAMJAMJAM429561567971800258739937690207447739307438550216441108401236498566030764732276
  • mathrex40325645480876798584693908481813858556901201944365443348302504675413060526545
  • CalculatedRisk0829561567971800258739937690207447739307438550216441108401236498566030764732276

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • BUY80%$20.17 days ago
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  • BUY21%$4.27 days ago
  • BUY20%$4.17 days ago
  • BUY20%$107 days ago
  • BUY20%$3.17 days ago

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As of Sep 29, 10:24 PM UTC