PolymarketOpen

Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?

No93%

Yes8%

Price checked at Sep 29, 11:07 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$665.6

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".

Sourcehttps://agi.safe.ai/

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Polymarket	89% No	—	—	—	Open
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	Polymarket	70% Yes	$195.5	—	—	Open
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Polymarket	95% No	$25	—	—	Open
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Polymarket	67% No	$4.9	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 6 days ago

Holders26

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 10% · best ask 11%

Top holders

Olcan60168643646958651040226785457558192685265370441231679743569183783453897666164
LornaPredicts23121409282641493954209569189740850890514746573056998058585078640387516357627
BAO9588923121409282641493954209569189740850890514746573056998058585078640387516357627
il160168643646958651040226785457558192685265370441231679743569183783453897666164
SuperTests23121409282641493954209569189740850890514746573056998058585078640387516357627

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL89%$13.410 days ago
SELL88%$8.811 days ago
SELL89%$0.415 days ago
SELL88%$17.617 days ago
SELL88%$17.617 days ago
BUY12%$2.417 days ago

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As of Sep 29, 11:25 PM UTC