PolymarketOpen

Chuck Edwards out as US Rep before December 31, 2026?

No94%
Yes7%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$10.5K
Spread1%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chuck Edwards' departure as a member of the United States House of Representatives is officially announced by December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise it will resolve to "No". The departure will be considered to be announced when Chuck Edwards, the United States House of Representatives, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Chuck Edwards has ceased or will cease to hold the position of US Representative from North Carolina's 11th Congressional District. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if specified conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the specified date without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if major news agencies of record confirm the departure by the specified date. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Chuck Edwards and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue activity

Holders30
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments5

Top holders

  • theginth112222397595571845283487712471993301122704130370517150128013460222617464137554
  • ragutwo112222397595571845283487712471993301122704130370517150128013460222617464137554
  • LornaPredicts21349601139003993658356560620807729109035662129424878553306802847070601915304
  • Gaujmalietis112222397595571845283487712471993301122704130370517150128013460222617464137554
  • Heyo029221349601139003993658356560620807729109035662129424878553306802847070601915304

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL6%$0.614 days ago
  • SELL93%$18.616 days ago
  • SELL94%$110.916 days ago
  • BUY6%$1.318 days ago
  • BUY6%$318 days ago
  • SELL4%$1.623 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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5 comments

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  • yen4u · 2 months ago

    Propose with your own money cockroach

  • Heyo0292 · 2 months ago

    The market clearly states "Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position".

  • Heyo0292 · 2 months ago

    Can someone put in a yes resolution.

  • Stupendous-Warning · 2 months ago

    Keep in mind the wording “I will complete my current term”(!)

  • Stupendous-Warning · 2 months ago

    Just in: “After much prayer and reflection, I’ve decided to withdraw from my re-election campaign. I will complete my current term. Serving Western North Carolina has been the honor of my life. Thank you for your trust, prayers, and support. God bless WNC and America.”

As of Oct 2, 05:13 PM UTC