Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

No100%
Yes0%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$56.5K
Spread0%
ResolvesSep 30, 2026in 19 hours

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Sourcehttps://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria are materially identical. Polymarket lists the resolution URL and a nominal resolution timestamp, while PredictFun does not; both specify the same September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET check and fallback rules.
  • Polymarketthis market

    Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

    This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

    137 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 22, 06:49 AM UTC

  • PredictFunOpen →

    Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

    This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

    read Sep 29, 09:07 PM UTC

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Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
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Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
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Venue activity

Holders137
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments0

Best bid 100% · best ask —

Top holders

  • 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296628952599633324457959281662202377652542973613546894146719614916962349491589555
  • AnimalEater52935426946029321091735429056863671866847421629936228050378338324576325484328
  • qing12352935426946029321091735429056863671866847421629936228050378338324576325484328
  • Wojtek52935426946029321091735429056863671866847421629936228050378338324576325484328
  • donthackme52935426946029321091735429056863671866847421629936228050378338324576325484328

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As of Sep 29, 09:29 PM UTC