Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 5.5%?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be less than 3.4%? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.4% and 3.7%? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.7% and 4.0%? | Polymarket | 94% No | Open |
| Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 5.2% and 5.5%? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? | Polymarket | 60% No | Open |
| Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? | Polymarket | 75% No | Open |
| Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%? | Polymarket | 79% No | Open |
| Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%? | Polymarket | 97% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 29, 10:17 PM UTC