PolymarketOpen

US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?

No96%
Yes4%

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24h volume$18.5
7d volume$218.5
30d volume$8.2K
Liquidity$37.6K
Spread0%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement. The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.

Venue activity

Holders75
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments6

Best bid 5% · best ask 5%

Top holders

  • 8dcc906a9b76037548912712607540934438081790688354128133763699489610805005008151176522200
  • Detailed-Lip76037548912712607540934438081790688354128133763699489610805005008151176522200
  • Fearless-Misnomer76037548912712607540934438081790688354128133763699489610805005008151176522200
  • Talophex89125103552022262725651685659486376379996966990635357418328303015653830107110
  • Kevindoto89125103552022262725651685659486376379996966990635357418328303015653830107110

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL5%$0.57 days ago
  • BUY95%$11.17 days ago
  • BUY95%$220.17 days ago
  • SELL6%$14.38 days ago
  • BUY94%$259.28 days ago
  • SELL5%$09 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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6 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • conotocaurius · 3 months ago

    no, it really does sound like 2c. The US will never be allowed by Iran to offer protection money in Hormuz. Potentially in other waters like Panama or Malacca, where there is not an incumbent great power on the littoral.

  • variant1.meta · 3 months ago

    For this market the title is misleading a bit. In fact you can call it "will anyone pay the US anything for Hormuz security by Dec 31". Does not sound like 2c.

  • Linguine12 · 3 months ago

    Perps code: 00aaoaac

  • anonymous · 3 months ago

    People on poly significantly overprice very unlikely events

  • conotocaurius · 3 months ago

    The underlying value of Dec 31st is 2c; the underlying value of the other dates is 0c.

  • deadinternettheory · 3 months ago

    Permanent peace btw

As of Oct 1, 05:58 AM UTC