PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Luz Rivas win the CA-29 House seat?

Yes89%

No12%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:21 PM UTC

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24h volume$135

7d volume$135

30d volume$251.5

Liquidity$13.1K

Spread4%

ResolvesNov 4, 2026next month

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Kalshi may accelerate settlement after a media consensus, while Polymarket uses credible reporting and, if ambiguous, official U.S. government/FEC results. Their listed settlement times also differ, but both concern the November 3, 2026 election.

KalshiOpen →
CA-29 House winner?: Who will win the 2026 CA-29 House election? Luz Rivas
If Luz Rivas wins the 2026 CA-29 House election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 08:25 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will Luz Rivas win the CA-29 House seat?
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
9 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 25, 06:59 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Angélica María Dueñas win the CA-29 House seat?	Polymarket	89% No	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 4 days ago

Holders9

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 87% · best ask 88%

Top holders

zhyfacai20832340504003105888963467300082235993171832063115419837848521247560845907040
0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296663774557108951218847084511960148594735005255992219687697831052706496449529711
pootytherewardfarmer63774557108951218847084511960148594735005255992219687697831052706496449529711
AJSV63774557108951218847084511960148594735005255992219687697831052706496449529711
Odd-Relish20832340504003105888963467300082235993171832063115419837848521247560845907040

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL11%$111 days ago
BUY89%$8.513 days ago
SELL11%$115 days ago
SELL11%$115 days ago
SELL12%$1.115 days ago
BUY88%$8.415 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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As of Sep 29, 09:35 PM UTC