PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 House seat?

No81%

Yes19%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:12 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$10.9K

Spread2%

ResolvesNov 4, 2026next month

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Kalshi may determine the result earlier after a media consensus, while Polymarket specifies settlement by November 4 and otherwise relies on credible reporting or official FEC results. These source and timing differences do not materially change the underlying event.

Polymarketthis market
Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 House seat?
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
30 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 21, 06:49 PM UTC
KalshiOpen →
CA-14 House winner?: Who will win the 2026 CA-14 House election? Melissa Hernandez
If Melissa Hernandez wins the 2026 CA-14 House election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 08:27 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 House seat?	Polymarket	77% Yes	$93	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 8 days ago

Holders30

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 76% · best ask 77%

Top holders

0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b12966115407913394261887639512516048913314180503516831527588106168254565166541686965
moneymakingmachine75901333943660809025405015493333905860533037447151549203344621350262473302213
grio4j3232f3e375901333943660809025405015493333905860533037447151549203344621350262473302213
Haradwaith115407913394261887639512516048913314180503516831527588106168254565166541686965
LinaBell75901333943660809025405015493333905860533037447151549203344621350262473302213

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As of Sep 29, 10:18 PM UTC