PolymarketOpen

Le Pen endorses non-Bardella PM by December 31, 2026?

No83%
Yes17%

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24h volume$435.5
7d volume$495.5
30d volume$2.4K
Liquidity$10.2K
Spread1%
ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

On July 7, 2026, Marine Le Pen announced she is running in the 2027 French presidential election and has named Jordan Bardella as her intended Prime Minister. You can read more about that here: https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen publicly names someone other than Jordan Bardella as the person she would appoint or support as Prime Minister if elected President by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying endorsement must be a public statement naming a preferred Prime Minister other than Jordan Bardella if Le Pen is elected President. Withdrawing support from Bardella alone will not qualify unless Le Pen also names another person for Prime Minister. If Marine Le Pen definitively drops out, is disqualified, or does not run as a presidential candidate in the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “No” immediately. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Marine Le Pen, the National Rally, or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Le Pen endorses non-Bardella PM by April 17, 2027?Polymarket70% NoOpen

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As of Sep 29, 08:32 PM UTC