PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat?

No59%

Yes42%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:21 PM UTC

Trade

Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →

Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.

24h volume$119.7

7d volume$478.9

30d volume$7.3K

Liquidity$21.1K

Spread2%

ResolvesNov 4, 2026next month

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Polymarket specifies consensus credible reporting, with FEC results controlling if ambiguous; Kalshi permits accelerated determination after a media consensus projection. They also list different nominal resolution times, but these are settlement-rule differences rather than different event horizons.

Polymarketthis market
Will Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat?
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
42 holders · 1 comments · read Sep 22, 09:58 AM UTC
KalshiOpen →
CA-07 House winner?: Who will win the 2026 CA-07 House election? Mai Vang
If Mai Vang wins the 2026 CA-07 House election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 07:36 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Doris Matsui win the CA-07 House seat?	Polymarket	59% Yes	$100	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 7 days ago

Holders42

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments1

Best bid 59% · best ask 62%

Top holders

anoin1237353070816638166541452450816707125541773721381392605861971194890348803415664
macrosteaks66639388383139222998681691093505447093794542392313030774365943188286221060594
0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296666639388383139222998681691093505447093794542392313030774365943188286221060594
reid997353070816638166541452450816707125541773721381392605861971194890348803415664
DuneMentat7353070816638166541452450816707125541773721381392605861971194890348803415664

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY39%$15.68 days ago
BUY39%$15.68 days ago
BUY39%$7.88 days ago
BUY39%$15.68 days ago
SELL63%$5.710 days ago
BUY38%$7.710 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

1 comment

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

title1 · 3 months ago
green site trading this market at 66 for mai and 34 for Doris lol

As of Sep 29, 09:30 PM UTC