Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? | Polymarket | 82% No | Open |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | Polymarket | 70% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 7 days agoBest bid 85% · best ask 87%
Top holders
- citra28124160639561291369865852757900361591346814138837883756455228145975719395425
- hosoon123103775278139867652925368420151914170566282318357595808142286343000646623384207
- spamburglar103775278139867652925368420151914170566282318357595808142286343000646623384207
- Detailed-Lip28124160639561291369865852757900361591346814138837883756455228145975719395425
- BigRabbit28124160639561291369865852757900361591346814138837883756455228145975719395425
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Recent trades
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Discussion on Predxy
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20 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- anonymous · 19 days ago
"IRAN ORDERS TEMPORARY SUSPENSION OF 10% FREIGHT CHARGE ON FOREIGN VESSELS CARRYING ENERGY PRODUCTS TO OR FROM IRAN" So there already was a charge in place
- Substantial-Cord · 27 days ago
scam
- DistortedReality · last month
Meh
- Deterrance · last month
Charges for services in Hormuz approved in Iranian parliament today according to official Government owned Mehr News Agency
- hyper-liquid-xyz · 2 months ago
Bloomberg: New details on Hormuz deal between Iran & Oman, Iran is looking to charge fees between 5~7%, Oman 3% - that's an average of 5-10 million per hull of a ship!
- alexludoman · 2 months ago
iran will just announce and it'll qualify, doesn't matter what trump thinks, doesn't matter if it works
- hyper-liquid-xyz · 2 months ago
I am Pakistani ship. Iran gave me permission to go back and forth the strait 100 times this week! I accepted their toll and promised to support their propaganda!
- tinytouns · 3 months ago
Iran will set up asap the fees before Trump. If Trump impose its fees, there will be no more place for iranian fees
- theFuuuuuuuck · 3 months ago
you are on a platform powered by decentralized finance asserting a single entity could throttle the finances of an entire nation? How many ships are transiting? How many bitcoin transactions has anyone ever stopped?
- kohalacoastgabe · 3 months ago
Keep buying Yes so the rest of us can buy No, lol. I hate when No, being the only possible outcome, is too expensive. Anyone living on our planet actually thinks Trump will let Iran charge a penny? He will get Congress to declare war--and they will--if Iran asserts tolls on 1/5 of oil. Per rules, Iran needs to physically charge and get paid, not just say they will....
- Screech2026 · 3 months ago
Iran Foreign Minister....................POTUS is absolutely right. Whoever provides secure and safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for this service. Iran has always been the GUARDIAN of the Strait and will remain so FOREVER. 20% is of course too much. We will be fair
- donaldDUMPPP · 3 months ago
Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify.
- donaldDUMPPP · 3 months ago
They need to start receiving payments for this market to resolve
- hyper-liquid-xyz · 3 months ago
Truth social - The USA will be, from this point forward, known as THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS will receive tolls, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped (~35M/ship), for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World. President DONALD J. TRUMP 🤣🤣🤣
- anonymous · 3 months ago
Well if you keep it up not for long
- Laurenman · 3 months ago
Thank you! at least I have the money to gamble :)
- The-Last-Degen · 3 months ago
nice pnl fuck tard
- Laurenman · 3 months ago
No way! really?
- Spirit-LT · 3 months ago
Iran's "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" is now charging per-vessel tolls of up to $2 million, payable in Chinese yuan, Bitcoin, or USDT.
- LiquidatedDegen · 3 months ago
Did you guys read the NBCNews article on this topic in my X feed? Crazy to hold NO.
As of Sep 29, 07:22 PM UTC