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IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?

No83%

Yes18%

Price checked at Sep 29, 11:03 PM UTC

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24h volume$6.4K

7d volume$13.6K

30d volume$16.3K

Liquidity$20.6K

Spread3%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.

Other legs of this event

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Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?	Polymarket	96% No	$3.6K	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 5 days ago

Holders68

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments2

Best bid 14% · best ask 16%

Top holders

Valen913662583235320132426949657391276078470832417600424257304394004178395357669251
nope305057303683300235633467352123311510727764721996550160508311927096333029708208881
eightpenguins13662583235320132426949657391276078470832417600424257304394004178395357669251
RememberAmalek57303683300235633467352123311510727764721996550160508311927096333029708208881
limetasx13662583235320132426949657391276078470832417600424257304394004178395357669251

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Discussion on Predxy

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2 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

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Compound-57 · 3 months ago
“Obviously, to do that, we will have to inspect,” Grossi said. He added that dates and locations of any inspections were currently being discussed with a decision to be made soon “in collaboration and in cooperation with the government of Iran”. “Whether this happens today, after tomorrow, or in one week, or in 10 days, it’s important but not essential. This is going to happen.”
DontTrustMe · 3 months ago
Doubt IKEA will want to do business there. 🤨

As of Sep 29, 11:22 PM UTC