Will Iran hold a presidential election by December 31?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue activity
Read from the venue 3 days agoBest bid 85% · best ask 93%
Top holders
- AlAhmeda34699878131398047255964746428152597070859086989191923643129765773105663367512
- AJSV97142562917781954958658950382698528304157558524416740549887712270109060100039
- Mojito997142562917781954958658950382698528304157558524416740549887712270109060100039
- bakayo33 - 993434699878131398047255964746428152597070859086989191923643129765773105663367512
- 0xe3aeb10c729dbef5f382bc229dca0660583d217a97142562917781954958658950382698528304157558524416740549887712270109060100039
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL92%$4.64 days ago
- SELL92%$4.64 days ago
- BUY93%$4.75 days ago
- BUY93%$4.75 days ago
- SELL91%$111 days ago
- SELL91%$6.114 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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2 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- JGBgoat22 · 6 months ago
HA!
- basedboyzfromthenorth · 7 months ago
lmao no chance
As of Oct 2, 09:25 PM UTC