Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue activity
Read from the venue 4 hours agoBest bid 85% · best ask 88%
Top holders
- Lk760037881349364479467913598119892413101172953834408676014326040455354432008121837
- janu61214860003170666088911761168289211991877286974153061288246383079273247460146
- TheKinginYellow37881349364479467913598119892413101172953834408676014326040455354432008121837
- tweaklan61214860003170666088911761168289211991877286974153061288246383079273247460146
- Quixotic-Tail37881349364479467913598119892413101172953834408676014326040455354432008121837
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- BUY88%$24 days ago
- SELL86%$51.28 days ago
- SELL86%$0.29 days ago
- BUY12%$1.710 days ago
- SELL11%$0.610 days ago
- SELL10%$13.910 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Oct 1, 10:43 PM UTC