PolymarketOpen

Will Apple purchase memory CXMT chips in 2026?

No79%

Yes22%

Price checked at Sep 29, 11:00 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume$81.9

30d volume$4.6K

Liquidity$1.5K

Spread2%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple. This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Venue activity

Read from the venue 7 days ago

Holders90

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

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Open interest—

Comments2

Best bid 16% · best ask 19%

Top holders

AlmostNoAwareness41372146763876498851213689788883864645491351668084404336710787527968161817134
Eric01841372146763876498851213689788883864645491351668084404336710787527968161817134
0x5d25d5325c5c1b0ed0f46d71660786866561b70341372146763876498851213689788883864645491351668084404336710787527968161817134
StraddleSeller17493784819918799861578442249751554376344500477991917180820090654223487783501
BridgeLake41372146763876498851213689788883864645491351668084404336710787527968161817134

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Discussion on Predxy

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2 comments

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Onswaggie · 28 days ago
US will never allow it for geopolitical reasons.
willsom · 3 months ago
Per the FT article, Apple has begun testing CXMT's chips for devices sold in China, thereby they have SOURCED components from CXMT albeit for testing/qualification rather than commercial use

As of Sep 29, 11:09 PM UTC