Loading…
Predxy

Search

Type at least two characters.

PolymarketOpen

Another Canada election called by December 31, 2026?

No93%
Yes7%

Price checked at

Trade
Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →
Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.
24h volume$60
7d volume$998.7
30d volume$5.5K
Liquidity$11.4K
Spread2%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 23Sep 30Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2026 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2027, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Venue activity

Holders24
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments40

Best bid 14% · best ask 22%

Top holders

  • Perlington37943485353271275581890857922032538755682402873153202616150745861322400211003
  • lug46874271460532163053613304647342034493513160741362305773430839765510183259743
  • R-Paradox237943485353271275581890857922032538755682402873153202616150745861322400211003
  • FrankyFourFingers46874271460532163053613304647342034493513160741362305773430839765510183259743
  • DW146874271460532163053613304647342034493513160741362305773430839765510183259743

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL14%$0.38 days ago
  • SELL78%$31.38 days ago
  • BUY22%$4.88 days ago
  • SELL78%$31.38 days ago
  • BUY80%$16.19 days ago
  • SELL73%$14.59 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

Sign in to join the discussion.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

40 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • Simon4s · 7 months ago

    You can make money in politics by betting the opposite of KamalaHairy

  • ShyGuy1 · 7 months ago

    Gg

  • ShyGuy1 · 7 months ago

    The calling of the by-election today proves you right. Congrats!

  • ConcedoNulli · 7 months ago

    Je t'entends! Fine analyse. Bonne chance et bons trades bro

  • StraddleSeller · 7 months ago

    Polls look fantastic for Liberals but Carney will likely bet on using the by-elections to reach majority (safe seats + tossup Terrebonne). The polling momentum should help in the by-elections and it's a safer choice than gambling with early election which comes with the risk of voter fatigue & backlash

  • 5-5000 · 7 months ago

    What did I say ? Lol

  • 5-5000 · 7 months ago

    Need to front run before sentiment change

  • KamalaHairy · 7 months ago

    if you win its because I sold, i just made it possible for it to hit. no election can happen when im betting on it, so I put it all on sports and its gone now. im cursed but its ok

  • ShyGuy1 · 7 months ago

    You sold? 😅

  • ShyGuy1 · 7 months ago

    Je dis actuellement, mais plus en avril apres le congres national du PLC

  • ShyGuy1 · 7 months ago

    Cest ca mon point, en sachant qu'il y aura tot ou tard une election, que les sondages sont bons actuellement, que PP n'a pas un bon leadership, que le npd est temporairement mort, cest actuellement un bon temps pour declancher une election generale. Mais bon, je n'y crois pas absolument, mais juste que la possibilite est plus eleve que 15-20%.

  • ConcedoNulli · 7 months ago

    Le pari fini dans 3 mois. Il est la lprob hehe

  • ShyGuy1 · 7 months ago

    Will it be better in 6 months? Or when opposition decide to call it?

  • ConcedoNulli · 7 months ago

    They either lose a seat or end up even. Nothing that would make them call an election tbh

  • ShyGuy1 · 8 months ago

    What do you mean that they could only lose 1 seat?

  • ConcedoNulli · 8 months ago

    Maybe next year!

  • ConcedoNulli · 8 months ago

    X'D

  • ConcedoNulli · 8 months ago

    Lol. The Libs could only lose 1 seat, so how does it make this more likely?

  • TradeWalkerReal · 8 months ago

    Seems plausible now, Terrebonne's seat has been vacated by the SCC

  • knrad · 8 months ago

    i trust you

As of Sep 30, 02:52 AM UTC