Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
The same question elsewhere
2 venues carry it- Polymarketthis market
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
212 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 28, 05:06 PM UTC
- PredictFunOpen →
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
read Sep 29, 05:58 PM UTC
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
| Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | Polymarket | 73% No | Open |
| Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | Polymarket | 86% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue yesterdayBest bid 49% · best ask 53%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296632475777992575382181528811204169322338789336560189457387763773770286919006756
- simpleman70385825801885444256285726169277138144171910910615374854814345084550291704671
- LA1770385825801885444256285726169277138144171910910615374854814345084550291704671
- 0x5b9115312cb4fc2b2b57c65045e611092f22270970385825801885444256285726169277138144171910910615374854814345084550291704671
- GoldmanSachs70385825801885444256285726169277138144171910910615374854814345084550291704671
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- BUY54%$2.7yesterday
- BUY54%$1.9yesterday
- BUY47%$4.2yesterday
- BUY54%$8.2yesterday
- BUY53%$471.7yesterday
- BUY52%$2.6yesterday
Discussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Sep 29, 08:30 PM UTC