Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If the SpaceX Starship successfully launches from a launch pad in Florida by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any renaming of the Starship vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome. The resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by June 30, 2027? | Polymarket | 81% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 4 hours agoBest bid 21% · best ask 42%
Top holders
- 1walrus67851530246924068075638434479010726301308565136355702346955634732625102334342
- zhaoyk82142993600821271766257981709356517501672837665343527564009716884456800318303
- nellojello82142993600821271766257981709356517501672837665343527564009716884456800318303
- ticklebutt82142993600821271766257981709356517501672837665343527564009716884456800318303
- IronE67851530246924068075638434479010726301308565136355702346955634732625102334342
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- BUY33%$2yesterday
- BUY72%$10.1yesterday
- BUY28%$1.7yesterday
- BUY67%$20.12 days ago
- BUY75%$26.12 days ago
- BUY73%$52 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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As of Sep 29, 09:35 PM UTC