Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface. The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The same question elsewhere
2 venues carry it- Polymarketthis market
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface. The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
35 holders · 3 comments · read Sep 29, 12:46 PM UTC
- PredictFunOpen →
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface. The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
read Sep 29, 05:13 PM UTC
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 97% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 8 hours agoBest bid 51% · best ask 52%
Top holders
- IronE60963992440718239966257291606349592661926467394904164445014389969175263847534
- zhaoyk96184600436497085725079168053655740273122158662361562933000499204786209757510
- dpnd96184600436497085725079168053655740273122158662361562933000499204786209757510
- Academic-Forecast60963992440718239966257291606349592661926467394904164445014389969175263847534
- DeverNoom60963992440718239966257291606349592661926467394904164445014389969175263847534
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Discussion on Predxy
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3 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- RandomBozo · 3 months ago
I think it means berthing rather than docking?
- Academic-Forecast · 3 months ago
"The two vessels must be free-flying" , "If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify." What is the purpose of including these two convoluted conditions? What does "free flight" refer to? And what on earth does "passive placement" mean? Can't they both use engines, or can they? What is the point of these two seemingly contradictory conditions? In any case, why not leave these details to the SpaceX engineers?
- RandomBozo · 4 months ago
Barring catastrophic failure, before December 31st is likely
As of Sep 29, 09:13 PM UTC