PolymarketOpen

Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?

No99%

Yes1%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:10 PM UTC

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24h volume$149.9

7d volume$374.9

30d volume$1.3K

Liquidity$12.8K

Spread1%

ResolvesOct 1, 2026tomorrow

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian authorities, including by authorities of any state or other subdivision of Brazil, by September 30, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government involved in any action against Bolsonaro and information from Bolsonaro and/or his legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue activity

Read from the venue 4 days ago

Holders63

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments4

Best bid 99% · best ask 100%

Top holders

meteortrex50674248876895157309498496552185153646913360615171366459870172387739273299575
SuperavitFiscal41149245018018568636124288399424503921214650445137799888393001186460544380992
Optimus-50674248876895157309498496552185153646913360615171366459870172387739273299575
alexsky41149245018018568636124288399424503921214650445137799888393001186460544380992
QMG-CORE41149245018018568636124288399424503921214650445137799888393001186460544380992

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BUY98%$123.58 days ago
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Discussion on Predxy

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4 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

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zzzzzzzzz11 · 3 months ago
Calúnia segundo Globo , congresso em foco, várias fontes. E após divulgação da carta está em curso avaliação se vão acusar de crime eleitoral, propaganda antecipada. A regra é This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is charged with a crime or arrested by Brazilian. Não fala nada de Banco Master, fala em crime de modo geral.
Rafaelusbr · 3 months ago
Qual o crime amigo?
zzzzzzzzz11 · 3 months ago
1. The 2026 Slander Case against President Lula (Police Indictment / Indiciamento)Many international or colloquial prediction markets translate the conclusion of a police investigation finding an individual guilty of a crime as being "charged."The Fact: On June 26, 2026, the Federal Police (Polícia Federal - PF) concluded its final investigation report and officially determined that Senator Flávio Bolsonaro committed the crime of slander (crime de calúnia) against President Lula
zzzzzzzzz11 · 3 months ago
Globo news reported "Resta claro o cometimento, pelo Exmo. Sr. Senador Flavio Nantes Bolsonaro, do crime tipificado no art. 138 c/c art. 141, inciso I e § 2° do Código Penal. Posto isto, encerram-se os trabalhos de Polícia Judiciária, remetendo-se os presentes autos para apreciação e demais providências que se entendam pertinentes, permanecendo este órgão policial à disposição para eventuais outras diligências que sejam imprescindíveis à apuração do fato", disse a PF." What else for the market to be resolved?

As of Sep 29, 10:28 PM UTC