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Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31?

No88%

Yes12%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:09 PM UTC

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24h volume$44.1

7d volume$44.1

30d volume$46.2

Liquidity$266.8

Spread9%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina makes Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Statements from Peter Thiel indicating intent to seek citizenship from Argentina will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". Statements from Argentina or its representatives indicating vague or conditional intent to make Peter Thiel a citizen will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Only Argentina's actually making Peter Thiel a citizen will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Honorary citizenship will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve according to statements from representatives of Argentina or Peter Thiel. This market may also resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Venue activity

Read from the venue 3 days ago

Holders23

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 10% · best ask 18%

Top holders

jijodebot77931855168977979773930150472986580441317116183570340482616940053881388242099
newbie772809391600683993537210892379752011866512277112240892614039425430140060744284
negativePNL2809391600683993537210892379752011866512277112240892614039425430140060744284
Moral-Nephew77931855168977979773930150472986580441317116183570340482616940053881388242099
xvc347y2809391600683993537210892379752011866512277112240892614039425430140060744284

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL11%$0.216 days ago
BUY91%$15528 days ago
BUY93%$2last month
BUY11%$5last month
SELL4%$0last month
SELL5%$0.3last month

Discussion on Predxy

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As of Sep 29, 10:22 PM UTC