Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, (49.713460° N, 37.614763° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Kupiansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk+location.jpeg The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Venue activity
Read from the venue 3 days agoTop holders
- KrackenSruster55823320781564825042492633966056498284958282665806983910625268814384693770509
- q90916620263983815473572619609020950896548271326777722860283515181418520860963393
- dgqqqww16620263983815473572619609020950896548271326777722860283515181418520860963393
- Glamorous-Region16620263983815473572619609020950896548271326777722860283515181418520860963393
- Totaniyala16620263983815473572619609020950896548271326777722860283515181418520860963393
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Recent trades
- BUY94%$69.24 days ago
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- SELL94%$418.64 days ago
- SELL3%$0.24 days ago
- BUY96%$5.64 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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164 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- BetsAhead · 3 months ago
Several individuals listed on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) "People" page have direct and significant connections to the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC), particularly through its Board of Directors and specialized fellowships. While ISW operates as an independent, non-partisan think tank, its leadership structure is deeply intertwined with the U.S. national security establishment. The presence of a former CIA Director (Petraeus), a former Army Intelligence officer (Gilmore), and executives from a top-tier intelligence contractor (CACI) on its Board of Directors ensures that the organization maintains strong, direct ties to the U.S. Intelligence Community.
- BetsAhead · 3 months ago
Unfortunately Polymarket uses ISW maps, which are heavily biased towards the Western intelligence community. It is in that way similar to Radio Free Europe. Institute for the Study of War is founded by Kimberly Ellen Kagan who is married to Frederick Kagan. Kimberly and Frederick Kagan have cultivated close ties to the Defence Department. Frederick's brother Robert Kagan’s wife, Victoria Nuland, is the state department official who very publicly supported Ukraine’s 2014 Maidan Revolution—the overthrow of pro-Russia President Viktor Yanukovych, which led Russia to seize Crimea and give military support to secessionist rebels in the Donbass.
- abdoohl · 4 months ago
Cases of HIV infection have been identified in the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kharkov and Kupiansk, stated the Deputy Minister of Health of the Kharkov Regional Military Administration, Pyakyshev
- Venedictov · 6 months ago
Получается, что Пыня опять напиздел, что Купянск взяли.
- cidesui77 · 6 months ago
Thank you for your attention to this matter
- pink.impala · 7 months ago
Lost all my money in Russia captures, gonn
- mlrs · 7 months ago
vitalik hello
- tsybka · 8 months ago
done
- Azrarn · 8 months ago
We need June 30 market!
- Peppery-Sectional · 8 months ago
according to ruzzia they should have captured all of UKR in three days, maps are updating a little slow it seems
- as87287 · 8 months ago
According to Russia, Kupyansk was captured in December 2025. What about the map?
- ThePredict0r · 8 months ago
Even pro-Russia sources are saying neither side has the manpower to establish control over the entire town.
- AuthenticDemigod · 8 months ago
COPEIANSK
- OraculumNobius · 8 months ago
By sources, do you mean fake Russian propaganda? According to their sources, they have already taken over half of Europe and Alaska. Better sell me some more “NO.”
- nuclearpie · 8 months ago
it is not even russian russian propoganda
- dracooo · 9 months ago
This has already happened, according to other sources.
- Peppery-Sectional · 9 months ago
where'd all the ruz fanbois go?
- ajtsoK · 9 months ago
fog wise or temperature wise, elaborate
- Medical-Protocol · 9 months ago
The weather currently favors Russia.
- ajtsoK · 9 months ago
alot changes once the weather changes
As of Sep 30, 01:16 AM UTC