Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next UK general election is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2027? | Polymarket | 77% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 3 days agoBest bid 5% · best ask 7%
Top holders
- HOD-Capital31627048520492227354616069874124458767757243686332730237616510640600462926383
- slobber31627048520492227354616069874124458767757243686332730237616510640600462926383
- melonmanm37064221817179838225957455025143891294172126736355626367799841115771049178138
- Kevlar-bob31627048520492227354616069874124458767757243686332730237616510640600462926383
- JPLP37064221817179838225957455025143891294172126736355626367799841115771049178138
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
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Discussion on Predxy
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15 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- gurenus · 4 months ago
Can we have market for 31 December?
- HughMan · 5 months ago
If Andy burnham doesn’t win the bi election, this market will go up
- franciis · 6 months ago
You're talking about Reform right?
- xlefgerx · 6 months ago
They are authoritarian. They will never leave.
- AndyBurnham · 7 months ago
-$86.79
- jakethedog12 · 10 months ago
Keir Starmer will resign by May 2026 (Local Elections), as other PMs have resigned due to poor local election results. However, a general election would NOT be held if he resigned, any Labour MP who takes over will see a boost in the polls - since they're not Starmer
- Keir-Starmer · 11 months ago
A party never voluntarily gives up power in the UK until they're forced to - which would make it 2029.
- AskarisGamba · 11 months ago
That assumes Starmers backbenchers dont fall out of line. If they see the writing on the wall, or an opportunity to save their seats away from Starmer's labour, they could paralyse government, eventually forcing a new GE.
- YourMumsFundManager · last year
Flaw is that it’s not proportionate representation like the Dutch politics. Westminster model is long out dated and favour the 2 traditional parties. However, they won’t be so keen themselves on changing it 🤣
- YourMumsFundManager · last year
Yeah because petitions amount to much. You’ve got to know the electoral system. They only get debated and then rejected the same day unless there’s a majority approval. Why would Labour who has the majority want to call an election and then Labour MPs lose their jobs ? Bit of rationality and knowledge required here.
- anonymous · last year
[link removed].uk/news/petition-to-call-an-immediate-general-election-passes-100000-signatures-500062 THis one
- anonymous · last year
220k signed a petition calling for an immediate GE.
- ribbet · 2 years ago
literally the same in any westminister system i dont see what the “flaw” is
- Cartertsu · 2 years ago
They can continue to rule for the next 5 years regardless of anything that happens to the UK
- Cartertsu · 2 years ago
UK democracy is a flaw democracy. I don’t think anyone is able to overthrow the ruling party given that they (the labor party) are the majority in the parliament
As of Sep 30, 02:37 AM UTC