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Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?

No97%
Yes3%

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24h volume—
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Liquidity$11.7K
Spread3%
ResolvesJun 7, 2027in 8 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).

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7 comments

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  • anonymous · 2 months ago

    True

  • catalanpaths · 2 months ago

    Also still too far out to get a clear overall picture imo

  • catalanpaths · 2 months ago

    PAN is frontrunner I agree, I'm just not sure by how much. I think PVEM/Morena being a coalition might actually be more beneficial then detrimental. Last election PAN won ~17.6% of votes compared to PVEM's ~8.7%, but PVEM still ended up with more seats. But again, I'm not too knowledgable on elections and could be completely wrong

  • anonymous · 2 months ago

    Who do you think would be #2? PVEM is fighting Morena.

  • catalanpaths · 2 months ago

    lol maybe youre right im wrong, we'll see

  • anonymous · 2 months ago

    Thank you

  • catalanpaths · 2 months ago

    Number of Seats != Number of Votes

As of Sep 30, 04:12 AM UTC