Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?

No81%
Yes19%

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24h volume—
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Liquidity$4.2K
Spread0%
ResolvesJan 1, 2028next year

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The venues list different nominal settlement times (Polymarket: January 1, 2028; Limitless: July 1, 2027), but the substantive IPO completion deadline and resolution criteria are the same; the differing settlement time does not change the question.
  • Polymarketthis market

    Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?

    This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    41 holders · 3 comments · read Sep 28, 05:38 PM UTC

  • LimitlessOpen →

    What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be: <$1T

    This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    0 holders · read Sep 29, 08:53 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.0T and $1.25T?Polymarket98% NoOpen
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T?Polymarket86% NoOpen
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?Polymarket79% NoOpen
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?Polymarket81% NoOpen
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.0T and $2.25T?Polymarket93% NoOpen
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $2.25T and $2.5T?Polymarket96% NoOpen
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?Polymarket82% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders41
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments3

Best bid 20% · best ask 21%

Top holders

  • yoyobb201841841028089688806255759558218178196295764786025122670006594826191388479280184
  • 0xff7ca9cd180d33119e653e3eb50555a3e2ccb23334364770132628089445663861616190474086377373921155601806483803672069358703472
  • 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296641841028089688806255759558218178196295764786025122670006594826191388479280184
  • Apt-Picturesque34364770132628089445663861616190474086377373921155601806483803672069358703472
  • ThanksGivingTurkey100141841028089688806255759558218178196295764786025122670006594826191388479280184

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Discussion on Predxy

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3 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • vinii · last month

    its gonna be 3t

  • vinii · last month

    Good luck

  • TruongMyLan · 2 months ago

    Sam Mogman doesn't want to be MOGGED by Dario Amodei's $2T+ Prospectus

As of Sep 29, 10:16 PM UTC