PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Arc FDV above $3B one day after launch?

No60%

Yes41%

Price checked at Sep 30, 06:03 AM UTC

Trade

Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →

Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.

24h volume—

7d volume$944.7

30d volume$4.1K

Liquidity$1.5K

Spread7%

ResolvesJan 1, 2028next year

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Arc's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Arc (https://x.com/arc) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria are materially identical; Polymarket lists a nominal resolution timestamp, while PredictFun does not, which does not change the event being measured.

PredictFunOpen →
Arc FDV above $3B one day after launch?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Arc's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Arc (https://x.com/arc) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
read Sep 30, 06:16 AM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Arc FDV above $3B one day after launch?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Arc's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Arc (https://x.com/arc) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
27 holders · 1 comments · read Sep 22, 09:03 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Polymarket	67% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Arc FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Polymarket	60% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Arc FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Polymarket	90% No	—	—	—	Open
Arc FDV above $7B one day after launch?	Polymarket	89% No	—	—	—	Open
Arc FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Polymarket	73% No	—	—	—	Open
Arc FDV above $10B one day after launch?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Arc FDV above $20B one day after launch?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Arc FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Polymarket	61% Yes	$220.8	—	—	Open
Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Polymarket	51% No	$40	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 8 days ago

Holders27

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments2

Best bid 65% · best ask 66%

Top holders

ChasingPaper102409019151690378033619552036233653755620191039275408270564397922622875952697
MaxEnt63800894248228305849910152123990674794849149840310517928817597338797532508620
newyear0363800894248228305849910152123990674794849149840310517928817597338797532508620
doodless63800894248228305849910152123990674794849149840310517928817597338797532508620
PBH102409019151690378033619552036233653755620191039275408270564397922622875952697

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY65%$29.310 days ago
BUY60%$5010 days ago
BUY39%$2.211 days ago
BUY56%$16.812 days ago
BUY39%$15.612 days ago
BUY40%$1612 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

2 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

maxdawg · 13 days ago
uh yeah after seeing management of launch today i can confidently say this chain will go to zero, i dont care who's backing them. if they open over 1-2B and i lose these bets i dont even care cuz its a free short for life
maxdawg · last month
arc bulls, wake up plz

As of Sep 30, 06:24 AM UTC