Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?
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Probability history
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the political party of the next officially appointed and confirmed Prime Minister of Romania by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the Prime Minister must be both formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If the prime minister comes from inside parliament, the party of the Prime Minister will be determined based on their formal party affiliation at the time they become Prime Minister. If the Prime Minister comes from outside parliament, their party will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting on which party they represent, hold membership in, or are formally affiliated with. If no clear affiliation exists, this market will resolve to “Independent/Technocrat”. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? | Polymarket | 61% No | Open |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of USR? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of UDMR? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of AUR? | Polymarket | 96% No | Open |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? | Polymarket | 91% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue yesterdayBest bid 56% · best ask 57%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296628959124003801240402838896725961882435679043902699122388961378900170916703591
- sciuboi73513086048786470371531362803520607559667464794683066736303366721260367328578
- Denis9973513086048786470371531362803520607559667464794683066736303366721260367328578
- yupiiiiiiiii73513086048786470371531362803520607559667464794683066736303366721260367328578
- Razor7728959124003801240402838896725961882435679043902699122388961378900170916703591
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Discussion on Predxy
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9 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Lcz · 3 months ago
PNL
- SygmaBoy · 3 months ago
PNL has scheduled an extraordinary congress for the weekend, which is expected to expel Vestea for breaking rank and accepting the designation. So Vestea’s logical move is to push the investiture vote through Parliament as fast as possible, before that congress convenes
- SygmaBoy · 4 months ago
Next stop Alexandru Nazare, PNL!
- xorstr · 4 months ago
No, but he is going to resign.
- lilmarco · 4 months ago
They cannot expel Adrian Vestea from PNL so fast because he is vice president in the party!
- SygmaBoy · 4 months ago
If Tomac goes to Parliament and gets rejected, that’s not just his failure, it’s Dan’s. He picked him, he spent presidential capital on him. A second technocrat going down the same way would be two personal defeats in a row, and at that point the “independent PM above the parties” project looks dead on arrival. It’s not abstract risk either. PNL, USR and UDMR have all come out openly skeptical about backing a technocratic government. Fritz said USR hardly sees itself supporting Tomac’s cabinet and called some of his proposed ministers a front for PSD. PNL has tied any decision to its internal statutory bodies and made clear it won’t prop up a government controlled from the shadows by PSD. When three of the pro-Western parties are already this cold on the technocratic format, a second technocrat faces the same wall, not a fresh start. No president walks into a second rejection on purpose. After Tomac, Dan can’t afford to nominate another lateral technical figure just to watch the same parliamentary math break it apart again. The cost of a second failed designation isn’t procedural, it’s authority. It signals he can’t deliver a government, which is the one thing the office is supposed to guarantee in this phase. So the realistic branch after a Tomac rejection isn’t “another clean technocrat.” It’s Dan being forced to bless whatever the parties can actually agree on, even if that means a politically marked PM rather than a neutral one
- panteh · 4 months ago
Add PMP party, the party of Eugen Tomac
- antoninu · 5 months ago
Andrew will win once again cause it's simply what winners do
- BlackJacks · 5 months ago
wheres the andrew tate option or is that independent
As of Sep 30, 12:34 AM UTC