Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue activity
Read from the venue 5 days agoBest bid 3% · best ask 3%
Top holders
- diablebleu33574848766046164159312361389126746625941229104553637902902710371273925289603
- whitetofu65212199459705189540054970689860634578415205165846935633340159883171881149961
- Darling-Top65212199459705189540054970689860634578415205165846935633340159883171881149961
- Anjun65212199459705189540054970689860634578415205165846935633340159883171881149961
- tomatosauce265212199459705189540054970689860634578415205165846935633340159883171881149961
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL3%$10.411 days ago
- SELL3%$6.712 days ago
- SELL3%$1012 days ago
- SELL3%$612 days ago
- SELL3%$17.412 days ago
- SELL3%$25.112 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
6 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Volku · 5 months ago
make it "warp speed" approval 😄
- dsb · 5 months ago
there are Hantavirus vaccines. but none approved by FDA. bad market, wont touch this one
- tomatosauce2 · 5 months ago
Thats in early stages of research/testing. This market is for full FDA approval
- truthbeautyjustice · 5 months ago
The odds are extremely slim. Prediction markets on Polymarket currently price the chance at only ~13% as of May 8, 2026. The core barrier is the complete absence of any Phase 3 efficacy trial — a mandatory step before FDA approval. With only Phase 1 data available and no large-scale trials underway, the standard multi-year regulatory pathway makes 2026 approval essentially impossible under normal circumstances. The WHO has classified hantavirus as a potential "Disease X" pandemic pathogen, which may accelerate funding and urgency, but not fast enough for this year.
- vsachy · 5 months ago
There is actually a vaccine already made by Moderna. The market creator is an idiot
- takecgcjof · 5 months ago
I will trust science
As of Sep 30, 01:38 AM UTC