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Will the National Party win 25-29 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

No99%
Yes1%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$10.5K
Spread0%
ResolvesNov 8, 2026next month

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

Other legs of this event

Venue activity

Holders26
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments0

Best bid 1% · best ask 1%

Top holders

  • 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296624719093638905570754998821495660703477304998015725121197754394584888578833288
  • Retarts110629860752488123934489339417809627143795425179184226726199460963223665182676
  • 0xd0d90cd53993e3fd64d27662db009adc6e1e30f2110629860752488123934489339417809627143795425179184226726199460963223665182676
  • Haradwaith110629860752488123934489339417809627143795425179184226726199460963223665182676
  • resilience26110629860752488123934489339417809627143795425179184226726199460963223665182676

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL1%$0.111 days ago
  • BUY1%$027 days ago
  • BUY1%$027 days ago
  • SELL1%$0.128 days ago
  • BUY1%$0.128 days ago
  • BUY1%$0.129 days ago

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As of Sep 29, 10:58 PM UTC