Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Roberto Cláudio win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will Eduardo Girão win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will Capitão Wagner win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | Polymarket | 63% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 7 days agoBest bid 50% · best ask 51%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296614205293218928694616380413558979309958248444087936970451124022947123093695138
- pvmai53352306040391879370192876456127623992489131261179048027508998742322163202655
- Januaa53352306040391879370192876456127623992489131261179048027508998742322163202655
- Ryxon2153352306040391879370192876456127623992489131261179048027508998742322163202655
- abezerra53352306040391879370192876456127623992489131261179048027508998742322163202655
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL49%$26.87 days ago
- SELL49%$14.77 days ago
- BUY51%$8.77 days ago
- BUY51%$4.67 days ago
- BUY51%$8.77 days ago
- BUY53%$29.28 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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10 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- lorakiss · last month
Data Folha Ciro Dispara 20 pontos percentuais
- MR-vorcaro2return · 2 months ago
pra tu perder mais dinheiro ? kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk
- 123mis · 3 months ago
Where is Delegado Huggo? The MISSÃO Candidate
- 123mis · 3 months ago
Cadê o home, Delegado Huggo, o único que vai acabar com o dominio do CV no estado 🐆🐆🐆
- Faithful-Offering · 4 months ago
Pesquisa mequetrefe da Real Time Big Data não é confiável.
- johnwild · 4 months ago
Criem um mercado para as eleições no Rio Grande do Norte
- DonBr · 4 months ago
Alguém pode me explicar porque tanta discrepância no Ciro, sendo que as pesquisas tao 43x42 elmano?
- kallbe · 5 months ago
Add Huggo Leonardo
- chudhunter · 5 months ago
🤪🤪🤪
- OldJoeCamel · 5 months ago
Binotto, please fill me more with 30c Ciro Yes
As of Sep 29, 09:24 PM UTC