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Will José Carlos Aleluia win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?

No100%
Yes0%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$38.8K
Spread0%
ResolvesOct 5, 2026in 5 days

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will Kleber Rosa win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will João Roma win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Bruno Soares Reis win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Rui Costa win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?Polymarket60% NoOpen
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?Polymarket61% YesOpen

Venue activity

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Comments10

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10 comments

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  • Warmhearted-Copper · 20 hours ago

    Ele de fato existe, é inegável. Mas se esse voto fosse majoritário Jeronimo teria vencido no primeiro turno em 2022. Quase trinta porcento do eleitorado de Lula vota em Neto. A dificuldade está em vencer a máquina e concorrer contra um grupo bem estruturado com 20 anos no poder. Além do fato novo, dois candidato a senadores que são ex governadores ao lado do atual disputando o pleito. Lula e sua campanha estão muito preocupados com a Bahia, em menos de 45 dias o presidente vai fechar dez visitas ao todo no Estado, isso demonstra um cenário mais complexo que em 22.

  • Ersat · 21 hours ago

    O perigo é voto casado - Jero/Lula. O povo é inocente

  • Ersat · 21 hours ago

    Tomara

  • Warmhearted-Copper · 21 hours ago

    PT cresceu muito nos ultimos dias, contudo, ainda acredito na Vitoria de Neto. Matematicamente ele perder essa eleição é bastante improvável. O grupo politico que hoje está com ele é muito maior e mais expressivo que na última eleição. Roma, 700k votos, não fez campanha pra Neto no 2 turno. Zé Ronaldo Prefeito de Feira não fez campanha pra Neto por estar fora da Chapa, erro que foi corrigido esse ano escolhendo Zé Cocá, e por último, Coronel, um Senador de mandato que fazia parte do grupo da oposição foi pro lado de Neto. Isso sim falar no desgaste do gov Jeronimo. Somente citando esse fatores, fazendo um calculo muito simples, a eleição para Jeronimo estaria extremamente difícil. Acredito que a plataforma vai corrigir nos próximos dias.

  • Bostil · 23 hours ago

    ACM começa bem e sempre acaba perdendo

  • ItsRigg3d · 5 days ago

    Grupo do Jacques Wagner recebeu 3 milhões do Vorcaro kkkkkk

  • ItsRigg3d · 3 months ago

    Com os desdobramentos da operação Compliance Zero, PT da Bahia vai tomar porrada atrás de porrada até Outubro, e o Jerônimo já tinha rejeição alta.

  • Well-Documented-Inhibition · 4 months ago

    cheers

  • ItsRigg3d · 4 months ago

    He won't

  • Decent-Flair · 4 months ago

    If Jeronimo wins, bahia is doomed

As of Sep 30, 03:53 PM UTC