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Will Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?

No100%
Yes0%

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Liquidity$15.2K
Spread0%
ResolvesOct 5, 2026in 5 days

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The next federal Chamber of Deputies election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election. In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or electoral federation in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election, not by any coalition it may be a part of. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (https://www.camara.leg.br/).

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will Partido Social Democrático (PSD) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Podemos (PODE) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Republicanos (REPUBLICANOS) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Federação PSDB Cidadania (PSDB-CIDADANIA) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Partido Novo (NOVO) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Avante (Avante) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Federação Renovação Solidária (PRD-SOLIDARIEDADE) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Federação PSOL REDE (PSOL-REDE) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Federação União Progressista (UPB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Polymarket64% NoOpen
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Polymarket64% YesOpen
Will Federação Brasil da Esperança (FE Brasil) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Partido Missão (MISSÃO) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Polymarket100% NoOpen

Venue activity

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Comments7

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7 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • Natsan · last month

    PL perdeu alguns grandes puxadores de votos, tais como Eduardo Bolsonaro e Carla Zambelli. Além de alguns outros que decidiram tentar a carreira de Senado ou Governador

  • Natsan · last month

    Eu diria que a UPB terá entre 8 a 12 deputados a mais que o PL

  • Natsan · last month

    Eu diria que UPB terá entre 8 a 12 deputados a mais que o PL

  • Nicolasro91 · last month

    Você acha que o Pl vai perder por um número grande de deputados tipo 5 ou 10?

  • Natsan · 2 months ago

    Flavio is not Jair...His poor performance will result in less deputies when comparing to 2022. UPB has way more chance

  • Natsan · 2 months ago

    UPB = União Brasil + Progressistas = 109 Deputados. PL = 98 Deputados. Partido Missão e Partido Novo tendem a aumentar consideravelmente seus deputados nesse ano por conta de ser puxado pelos candidatos à Presidência. PL perdeu força comparado a 2022 quando Bolsonaro ainda era Presidente. UPB tem maiores chances de ser a maior bancada.

  • kallbe · 5 months ago

    missao mentioned

As of Sep 29, 11:50 PM UTC