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Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

Yes66%
No35%

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24h volume$253.6
7d volume$437.4
30d volume$888.1
Liquidity$317.9
Spread10%
ResolvesApr 18, 2027in 7 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will Michel Barnier announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Polymarket91% NoOpen
Will Valérie Pécresse announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Polymarket95% NoOpen
Will Élisabeth Borne announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Polymarket91% NoOpen
Will Gérald Darmanin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Polymarket93% NoOpen
Will François Bayrou announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Polymarket94% NoOpen
Will Dominique de Villepin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Polymarket61% YesOpen
Will Carole Delga announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Polymarket95% NoOpen
Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Polymarket98% NoOpen
Will Manuel Bompard announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Polymarket94% NoOpen
Will Bernard Cazeneuve announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Polymarket62% NoOpen
Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Polymarket96% NoOpen
Will Sébastien Lecornu announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Polymarket94% NoOpen
Will Jean Castex announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Polymarket97% NoOpen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Polymarket90% NoOpen

Venue activity

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Comments22

Discussion on Predxy

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22 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • MoonShootBets · 27 days ago

    (AFP) – Eric Zemmour a indiqué jeudi qu'il comptait annoncer sa candidature à l'élection présidentielle 2027 "avant décembre", semblant ainsi écarter une candidature de sa compagne Sarah Knafo, la très médiatique vice-présidente de son parti d'extrême droite Reconquête.

  • MoonShootBets · last month

    candidat jusqu’à la primaire

  • MoonShootBets · last month

    Belgian press stating candidacy of Zemmour « leave little doubt » (peu de doute)Knafo herself said publicly in May 2026 that she wants Zemmour to be the candidate in May 2026 said publicly in May 2026.

  • MoonShootBets · last month

    August 29, 2026 | Source: Les Échos "In an interview with the newspaper Le Parisien published this Saturday, the Prime Minister reaffirmed that he would not run in the 2027 presidential elections."

  • MoonShootBets · last month

    Non mais cela va venir

  • Hot-Skull · 2 months ago

    non pas encore

  • zgmzgm · 2 months ago

    Bernard Cazeneuve dans "Le Parisien": "C'est par un contrat qui me lie aux Français que je présente ma candidature" Ça ne compte pas comme déclaration de candidature ?

  • StudentMoney · 2 months ago

    xavier bertrand ???

  • Call-me-GG · 3 months ago

    Boris Vallaud ?

  • Palace8709 · 3 months ago

    Discord: easeful12

  • Palace8709 · 3 months ago

    P.S. J'ai déjà résolu Attal quand il a annoncé sa candidature il y a quelques mois.

  • Palace8709 · 3 months ago

    Trouves-moi la source et je vais faire la résolution.

  • SwitchMario2019 · 3 months ago

    Toutes les résolutions sont sous whitelist maintenant, mais oui Polymarket a toujours pas l'info visiblement... 😅

  • Poivre · 3 months ago

    Jpp ça fait 2 mois que JLM a annoncé sa candidature au JT de TF1 mais c'est pas résolve, personne en a rien à foutre.

  • Call-me-GG · 4 months ago

    Fabien Roussel ?

  • Poivre · 5 months ago

    Quand on se présente à une primaire c'est qu'on souhaite, en définitif, se présenter à la présidence de la république, non ? Ca fait parti du processus de campagne électorale. Un candidat à une primaire devrait être considéré par défaut comme un candidat à l'élection présidentielle.

  • zgmzgm · 5 months ago

    Just no volume

  • SwitchMario2019 · 5 months ago

    Mais effectivement, dans tous les cas, le point de vue peut se défendre, ça mérite une précision

  • SwitchMario2019 · 5 months ago

    Personnellement j'aurais dit que non : les règles indiquent "are running for President". Candidater à une primaire implique justement de ne laisser que le vainqueur de la primaire concourir pour la présidentielle 🤔

  • Bubblemaker · 5 months ago

    What is going on with the prices...

As of Sep 30, 10:29 AM UTC