Will voter turnout be between 47% and 50% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Russia Parliamentary election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | Polymarket | 100% Yes | Open |
| Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 11 days agoBest bid — · best ask 0%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296687828395219643974478201301871178321072091598917825668260071784882772582081735
- bogdanc161629932475390497148666835932031530609438237244725677342368686270737044954128
- brave-baboon61629932475390497148666835932031530609438237244725677342368686270737044954128
- e46m361629932475390497148666835932031530609438237244725677342368686270737044954128
- Madman.161629932475390497148666835932031530609438237244725677342368686270737044954128
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Recent trades
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Discussion on Predxy
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156 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Voland6777 · 8 days ago
На выборах, которые так явно "рисуются" явка еще может поменяться в диапозане +-5 процентов. Особенно учитывая тот факт, что СР дали "зеленый свет" в последний момент.
- YourAnimeGirl · 10 days ago
Yup they add 49 people in Duma so they need like 355 seats to protect their position will add more party list vote which more possible to not remove 5% of A Just Russia Threshold
- Admired-Evaluator · 10 days ago
У меня похожие мысли на этот счёт. К тому же нынешняя цена мне кажется очент хорошей для покупки 62+. Не думаю, что цик упустит хоть малейшую возможность дорисовать себе голосов каким-либо способом. Тем более за 5 дней между предварительными и финальными результатами. Не факт, что прям до 62 конечно дойдёт, но сильно вырасти вполне может. Херсон, думаю вполне может быть 100 явка и 100 за ЕР.
- YourAnimeGirl · 10 days ago
Understand now
- Volodymyr-Zelensky · 10 days ago
Нет во львове
- YourAnimeGirl · 10 days ago
Region result have 0 vote result from Kherson so I believe overall will be 67.5m and blank vote / invalid vote 1.4m
- Ersicolus · 10 days ago
Мне бы и самому хотелось бы верить что Херсон даст прирост к явке, но Причерноморье голосовало досрочно, и явка была учтена еще в первый день выборов
- YourAnimeGirl · 10 days ago
You are at Kiev right? Anyway all best for you
- Volodymyr-Zelensky · 10 days ago
Украина
- YourAnimeGirl · 10 days ago
Where are you from sir? :)))
- YourAnimeGirl · 10 days ago
After this election end if my logic correct I will tell you why 62%+ is mostly to happen. I don't want to tell things that is not being verified before.
- Volodymyr-Zelensky · 10 days ago
а типо сик семен, понял, связь вась
- YourAnimeGirl · 10 days ago
I am comparing with 2021 Russia election I and realize 67m+ without counting invalid / blank vote
- Volodymyr-Zelensky · 10 days ago
Кто тебе это сказал, октуда ты взял информацию что это не учитывая окупированные територии
- YourAnimeGirl · 10 days ago
That is a good signal for 62+ because ahh we all know what will happen
- Ersicolus · 10 days ago
ЦИК резко отключил трансляцию. Но окончательные данные запланированы к 25 сентября
- YourAnimeGirl · 10 days ago
Kherson 0% counting maybe 67m final + 1.8m blank / invalid vote
- YourAnimeGirl · 10 days ago
Anyone have new link live for last moment?
- YourAnimeGirl · 10 days ago
Lol it will be 62%
- S888 · 11 days ago
It's not finalized afaik
As of Oct 1, 11:43 PM UTC