US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
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Probability history
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 3 days agoTop holders
- anoin123114657271285511367879703365484572688248973675722511239339535646764098946050607
- denizz12933385462445051219548039807631278921517469211617755773732773415883384410827
- gkeqd12933385462445051219548039807631278921517469211617755773732773415883384410827
- aosdijf114657271285511367879703365484572688248973675722511239339535646764098946050607
- Substantial-Coupon114657271285511367879703365484572688248973675722511239339535646764098946050607
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Discussion on Predxy
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161 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- fidji · 12 days ago
BS
- hyper-liquid-xyz · 3 months ago
2 hours ago - Iranian state media says it has now "no choice but to obtain the atomic bomb" to remove "the military option for the occupation and partitioning of Iran" from the table, arguing Iran must "absolutely reach nuclear deterrence" before current negotiations can be conducted "from a correct position," per Fars. 😮😮😮
- redsyhgrey · 4 months ago
Yolft predicts no peace deal by June end, forget US obtaining uranium
- Crowded-Wannabe · 4 months ago
hello
- sonnguyen95 · 4 months ago
who even Yes this
- BrightStars · 4 months ago
hey
- zthunderfury · 4 months ago
BrightStars sold 26,085 Yes for June 30 at 2.7¢ ($695)
- Latt · 4 months ago
1:21 PM - Trump: I am not considering a covert operation to seize Iran uranium. There's no reason to get Iran nuclear dust, it's entombed.
- lifeisbs · 4 months ago
you never know. Trump said he will unearthen the nuclear dust and he will not end the war until he gets it.
- kevtp · 4 months ago
And the rules say "physical custody OR control" and "US territory or elsewhere" - so in a typical resolution dispute drama it could be argued, even if far fetched, that China holding it qualifies as legal control outside US territory
- kevtp · 4 months ago
So if Iran ships the Uranium to China, and China agrees with the US it won't give it back to Iran unless the US violates the deal - does that count as the Uranium being "under US control" in the rules? Indirectly in a legal way it kinda is, just not physical. That likely outcome should be clarified by Polymarket or there should be some consensus how it would resolve
- zthunderfury · 4 months ago
So the US buys it from China or what?
- toutiege · 4 months ago
It will be shipped to China
- something-know · 4 months ago
TheQuietRisk - mad ?
- StillWater0 · 4 months ago
come on mojtaba just give Trump 1 miligram of uranium and we all will be happy
- BrightStars · 4 months ago
Stop The Delay
- Nutty-Seaside · 4 months ago
??
- studmuffin6969 · 4 months ago
no? i'm too lazy to figure out why.
- studmuffin6969 · 4 months ago
fu
- Nutty-Seaside · 4 months ago
pulled this up on Ten poly on a whim and now I genuinely can't look away
As of Sep 30, 07:29 AM UTC