Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | Polymarket | 97% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 29, 10:54 PM UTC