PolymarketOpen

Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?

No97%
Yes3%

Price checked at

Trade
Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →
Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.
24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$15.1K
Spread1%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 23Sep 30Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue activity

Holders202
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments29

Best bid 96% · best ask 98%

Top holders

  • Jan777111540681317740103557967262084337258765868556750780059317482948108124337120382
  • Safe-Jewelry97672112380588518658859221422581522664938121648778223046012006536512218182756
  • gorovi111540681317740103557967262084337258765868556750780059317482948108124337120382
  • Lean-Crime97672112380588518658859221422581522664938121648778223046012006536512218182756
  • seeyouontv97672112380588518658859221422581522664938121648778223046012006536512218182756

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • SELL2%$1.72 days ago
  • BUY4%$58 days ago
  • SELL96%$9.610 days ago
  • BUY98%$9.810 days ago
  • SELL97%$111 days ago
  • BUY98%$111 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

Sign in to join the discussion.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

29 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • Hoarse-Volatility · 5 months ago

    So odd

  • Elementary-Rebellion · 5 months ago

    Slovenia, Spain, and the United States. It's odd that the probability here is lower than for the United States alone.

  • Prosperity168 · 6 months ago

    Why are you betting if you’re only up 700$ what’s the point? That’s one dinner sir 🤣

  • saneperson · 6 months ago

    bro how do you still have money to gamble, and why are you still betting 💀

  • Prosperity168 · 6 months ago

    In May 2020, the Trump administration announced its intention to leave the Open Skies Treaty and ignored the legal notification requirements. The Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel, at the time led by Assistant Attorney General Steven Engel, issued an opinion arguing that the notice requirements infringed on the president’s constitutional authority over foreign affairs. “The President’s power to withdraw from treaties flows from his constitutional role as the ‘sole organ of the nation in its external relations,’ granting him discretion in conducting foreign affairs and implementing or terminating treaties without congressional constraints on diplomatic decisions,” Engel wrote in the administration’s final days.

  • TDD223 · 6 months ago

    hes going to invoke the article and use it as a bargaining chip

  • philou747 · 6 months ago

    [link removed].uk/news/world/middle-east/[link removed]

  • thecaricature · 7 months ago

    Ukraine isn't part of NATO.

  • Moist-Jazz · 7 months ago

    nato will dissolves before July

  • charlee13 · 8 months ago

    what u ppl think about this right now ?

  • LucyJoe · 9 months ago

    Denmark probably wants to withdraw, but if it does, Greenland will be attacked.

  • Edible-Glider · 9 months ago

    100%

  • Careless-Pneumonia · 11 months ago

    Ukraine is not part of NATO so it doesnt pay taxes. USA has no obligation to "defend" Ukraine. the average american cant even point to Ukraine on the map. Other than minerals there is nothing to gain from Ukraine. most of those minerals are located in the Russian occupied parts of Ukraine.

  • JacinthHenry-Martin · 11 months ago

    Hungary withdraws from NATO by end of 2025 amid Orban's pro-Russia pivot.

  • JulesAnthony · 11 months ago

    Turkey exits NATO by December 2025 amid escalating tensions with US.

  • nwo · last year

    So it becomes more than likely that Ukraine may fall and thus it begs the question, what’s the point of being part of Nato and pay heavy taxes to USA if it can’t protect Ukraine. Like who’s next on the chopping board?

  • nwo · last year

    Also because there is conflict brewing between Turkey and Israel and Middle East. USA and Nato might be spread too thin to effectively defend Ukraine and all the while North Korea, India, and other countries are all supplying Russia with troops or weapons.

  • nwo · last year

    The reason they are part of Nato is that USA could protect them with military power. And if Ukraine losses and a small Nato country like Lithuania is attacked and the USA doesn't or can't help them, then there's no point for any of the countries to stay in Nato because nobody wants to pay such high taxes to USA if it can't protect them militarily.

  • nwo · last year

    The reason they are part of Nato is that USA could protect them with military power. And if Ukraine losses and a small Nato country like Lithuania is attacked and the USA doesn't/can't help them, then there's no point for any of the countries to stay in Nato because nobody wants to pay such high taxes to USA if it can't protect them militarily. Also because there is conflict brewing between Turkey and Israel and Middle East. USA and Nato might be spread too thin to effectively defend Ukraine and all the while North Korea, Laos, Afganistan, and I think India are all supplying Russia with troops and / or weapons.

  • nwo · last year

    Gena, I agree. Other countries are just -tax- slaves.

As of Sep 30, 01:51 PM UTC