Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue activity
Read from the venue 2 days agoBest bid 96% · best ask 98%
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Discussion on Predxy
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29 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Hoarse-Volatility · 5 months ago
So odd
- Elementary-Rebellion · 5 months ago
Slovenia, Spain, and the United States. It's odd that the probability here is lower than for the United States alone.
- Prosperity168 · 6 months ago
Why are you betting if you’re only up 700$ what’s the point? That’s one dinner sir 🤣
- saneperson · 6 months ago
bro how do you still have money to gamble, and why are you still betting 💀
- Prosperity168 · 6 months ago
In May 2020, the Trump administration announced its intention to leave the Open Skies Treaty and ignored the legal notification requirements. The Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel, at the time led by Assistant Attorney General Steven Engel, issued an opinion arguing that the notice requirements infringed on the president’s constitutional authority over foreign affairs. “The President’s power to withdraw from treaties flows from his constitutional role as the ‘sole organ of the nation in its external relations,’ granting him discretion in conducting foreign affairs and implementing or terminating treaties without congressional constraints on diplomatic decisions,” Engel wrote in the administration’s final days.
- TDD223 · 6 months ago
hes going to invoke the article and use it as a bargaining chip
- philou747 · 6 months ago
[link removed].uk/news/world/middle-east/[link removed]
- thecaricature · 7 months ago
Ukraine isn't part of NATO.
- Moist-Jazz · 7 months ago
nato will dissolves before July
- charlee13 · 8 months ago
what u ppl think about this right now ?
- LucyJoe · 9 months ago
Denmark probably wants to withdraw, but if it does, Greenland will be attacked.
- Edible-Glider · 9 months ago
100%
- Careless-Pneumonia · 11 months ago
Ukraine is not part of NATO so it doesnt pay taxes. USA has no obligation to "defend" Ukraine. the average american cant even point to Ukraine on the map. Other than minerals there is nothing to gain from Ukraine. most of those minerals are located in the Russian occupied parts of Ukraine.
- JacinthHenry-Martin · 11 months ago
Hungary withdraws from NATO by end of 2025 amid Orban's pro-Russia pivot.
- JulesAnthony · 11 months ago
Turkey exits NATO by December 2025 amid escalating tensions with US.
- nwo · last year
So it becomes more than likely that Ukraine may fall and thus it begs the question, what’s the point of being part of Nato and pay heavy taxes to USA if it can’t protect Ukraine. Like who’s next on the chopping board?
- nwo · last year
Also because there is conflict brewing between Turkey and Israel and Middle East. USA and Nato might be spread too thin to effectively defend Ukraine and all the while North Korea, India, and other countries are all supplying Russia with troops or weapons.
- nwo · last year
The reason they are part of Nato is that USA could protect them with military power. And if Ukraine losses and a small Nato country like Lithuania is attacked and the USA doesn't or can't help them, then there's no point for any of the countries to stay in Nato because nobody wants to pay such high taxes to USA if it can't protect them militarily.
- nwo · last year
The reason they are part of Nato is that USA could protect them with military power. And if Ukraine losses and a small Nato country like Lithuania is attacked and the USA doesn't/can't help them, then there's no point for any of the countries to stay in Nato because nobody wants to pay such high taxes to USA if it can't protect them militarily. Also because there is conflict brewing between Turkey and Israel and Middle East. USA and Nato might be spread too thin to effectively defend Ukraine and all the while North Korea, Laos, Afganistan, and I think India are all supplying Russia with troops and / or weapons.
- nwo · last year
Gena, I agree. Other countries are just -tax- slaves.
As of Sep 30, 01:51 PM UTC