Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue activity
Read from the venue yesterdayBest bid — · best ask 0%
Top holders
- Threadbare-Signal11630502333603507010260051963632226548966933278788158525182753385940719742668
- Ultimate-Execution11630502333603507010260051963632226548966933278788158525182753385940719742668
- TheLakeside11630502333603507010260051963632226548966933278788158525182753385940719742668
- KKCY321811630502333603507010260051963632226548966933278788158525182753385940719742668
- noreasapa50085164654457077021180441667207714705224469706773328882519583735294659477266
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Recent trades
- BUY0%$1yesterday
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- SELL100%$2.8Kyesterday
- SELL0%$0.3yesterday
Discussion on Predxy
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As of Sep 29, 07:25 PM UTC