PolymarketOpen

US military draft authorized in 2026?

No96%

Yes4%

Price checked at Sep 30, 12:06 AM UTC

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24h volume$100

7d volume$597.7

30d volume$6.5K

Liquidity$28.8K

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue activity

Read from the venue 7 days ago

Holders211

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments11

Best bid 95% · best ask 96%

Top holders

Talophex41322607865742074300265155339497262263149745189020953796823127345289944760602
0x6bd3561530e94da23d44bf19a78c8970f5363e2345080458097951479595195285325178747176737865919481478847318440800260210343804
Slight-Vineyard41322607865742074300265155339497262263149745189020953796823127345289944760602
simpleman41322607865742074300265155339497262263149745189020953796823127345289944760602
58998545080458097951479595195285325178747176737865919481478847318440800260210343804

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY96%$58 days ago
SELL4%$1.18 days ago
BUY96%$39.68 days ago
BUY94%$8428 days ago
SELL92%$19 days ago
BUY96%$19 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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11 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

Talophex · 22 days ago
Can someone please buy these No bonds from me
GKai · 5 months ago
u will
PaulRevere · 6 months ago
...because that's how drafts work only one race is drafted
38388493383 · 6 months ago
reported for racism
Prof-Jiang · 6 months ago
This was never about Iran. USA was the instrument, Israel the architect. The trap was set years ago. History is simply closing it now. Empires don't retreat — they escalate. And escalation at this scale will exhaust every volunteer they have. The moment boots hit Iranian ground, the draft is no longer a question of politics, it becomes a question of arithmetic. While US forces bleed in Iranian mountains, Tel Aviv inherits the Middle East. Not a prediction — a sequence.
anonymous · 6 months ago
"professor" jiang cant tell his head from his ass
pink.impala · 7 months ago
Judeo-Nazi detected!!!
PungentQueef · 7 months ago
wouldnt a draft be so great. give all those white boys with podcasts something to do
38388493383 · 7 months ago
Professor Jiang says it WILL happen.
anonymous · 7 months ago
i hope so i dont want to go to war
Gareth6 · 7 months ago
This is just free money

As of Sep 30, 12:29 AM UTC