Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
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Read from the venue 2 days agoTop holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296623252997837784216835373465985479426648967854775676085969379728968847868488376
- sdkfsdlfkjsdlkfsjl29840218012450730421701561987120347460939513970096057739135420319161086074616
- Truthful-Procedure29840218012450730421701561987120347460939513970096057739135420319161086074616
- BabyGroot29840218012450730421701561987120347460939513970096057739135420319161086074616
- earthStones29840218012450730421701561987120347460939513970096057739135420319161086074616
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Discussion on Predxy
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127 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Fantastic-Cabinet · 4 days ago
Ncr-Iran says that Mojtaba Khamenei’s Word Is No Longer Final
- Shiny-Mark · 12 days ago
What is dead may never die
- .hrovaro · 14 days ago
wrote "find sybils earn bounties" and is the drop that gives you credit for just being there
- Spirit-LT · last month
Lebanese MP Ashraf Rifi, who previously served as Minister of Justice and headed the Internal Security Forces, has stated that Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is clinically dead. “In my assessment, he is either clinically dead, or his political role has come to a complete end. The statements being published in his name are most likely a reflection of a power struggle within the Iranian regime,” Palestinian news agency Maan quoted him as saying. Rifi named IRGC commander General Ahmad Vahidi as the key figure in Iran’s leadership, saying that he had managed to consolidate what remains of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and concentrate power in Iran in the hands of the organization. According to the politician, this goes beyond an internal power struggle and amounts to a coup d’état. It represents a departure from Iran’s fundamental principle of velayat-e faqih, under which the head of state is the country’s highest religious authority — the Supreme Leader.
- ForeverAlone69 · last month
according to the rules, if there is no way to prove, it will resolve to “No Head of State”.
- Treedud25 · 2 months ago
This will be over quickly… read the news. Sketchy meeting in pitch black car..? Critical condition?
- vpoznyak2 · 2 months ago
wasy money or..?
- skbdi · 2 months ago
even if he never appears, irgc will still claim he is the leader. so this could be disputed
- Yarick · 2 months ago
He has been mummified 3 months ago with his daddy….
- Yarick · 2 months ago
Wait and see what Trump does to him…lol
- Treedud25 · 2 months ago
Hes dead.
- Windy-Southeast · 2 months ago
sure bag holder, Mojtaba yes is literally 92% chance and your avg. no is high af, you've already lost this one
- Yarick · 2 months ago
Only idiots, watch us or Israel take that disabled already leader out…
- Treedud25 · 2 months ago
WHO ARE THE CLOWNS BIDDING THIS DOWN
- Fantastic-Cabinet · 2 months ago
Invisible leader
- abdoohl · 2 months ago
Mojtaba for the win!
- Windy-Southeast · 2 months ago
Mojtaba yes will print, Americans are already frustrated because of that orange fatso's actions and the fact they are being called child murderers now by many countries, most are not ok with this and that means Mojtaba will remain in power (92% chance)
- UmaSucksBalls · 2 months ago
Trump is going balls to the wall to force the regime change. This year he proved to not taco by wiping out the previous leaders. He’s hella pissed now with what’s going in the strait. Either he wipes them out or America goes into the deepest levels of the Great Depression from all the war spending and let’s be real this mfer wants to his ratings to go up by end of year.
- Treedud25 · 2 months ago
This is already over.
- UmaSucksBalls · 2 months ago
I’m sure it will come to light as some point just hopefully it’s this year.
As of Sep 29, 09:31 PM UTC