Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate cut by April 2027 meeting? | Polymarket | 61% No | Open |
| Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting? | Polymarket | 56% Yes | Open |
| Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting? | Polymarket | 93% No | Open |
| Fed rate cut by June 2027 meeting? | Polymarket | 58% No | Open |
| Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting? | Polymarket | 80% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue yesterdayBest bid 97% · best ask 98%
Top holders
- TheReturnOfDarthMaul55388042878106612984650771012856953294835512286392194574801105901687237873381
- strategy1.255388042878106612984650771012856953294835512286392194574801105901687237873381
- simpleman55388042878106612984650771012856953294835512286392194574801105901687237873381
- NoPeeking85002355202646770038788297383084634166875614093071220064343011133051368772502
- JonTay85002355202646770038788297383084634166875614093071220064343011133051368772502
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL97%$5yesterday
- SELL2%$0.4yesterday
- SELL97%$25.7yesterday
- SELL2%$3.1yesterday
- SELL97%$5yesterday
- SELL97%$5yesterday
Discussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
31 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- RektCitys · 24 days ago
not yet, we need a crash first
- truthteller · last month
all the girls stepping out for a public affair
- QMG-MACRO · last month
How is anyone thinking of cuts
- RektCitys · 2 months ago
they will probably just hold not hike but still if there is a market crash by the end of the year before the december meeting people will probably reprice this to 30 to 40% chance of cutting, even tho i think they wont cut this year there is still money to be made in case of a repricing
- .asyverex · 2 months ago
amondablack?
- RJC0001 · 3 months ago
Easy money on no cuts by December. Base case is hold, one hike is a possibility, but not a cut.
- Jeffrey-Einstein · 3 months ago
r u dumb? yes.
- mudeok081 · 3 months ago
fed cut the rats
- mudeok081 · 3 months ago
magic man
- mudeok081 · 3 months ago
it wont cut until oct. mark it
- Cryptostradamus · 3 months ago
How can there be a December one if this market auto resolves to no after July?
- gambler925 · 3 months ago
low liquididty, ignore the retard with negative PNL who doesnt ave basic comprehension skills
- NoAFrog · 3 months ago
you misunderstood the rates.... if you choose December that means that will cut rate AFTER october...But if the cut before october you will lose the December postion....
- PoorWithCryptos · 3 months ago
How is it possible there are 24% for October and 21% for December ??
- Maraq · 6 months ago
yes "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?" He should be confirmed by may 15 or its major fuck up by the administration
- lox-frogs · 6 months ago
Interesting. do they have that literal market? what's best market to take action on that?
- Maraq · 6 months ago
no, more than 10% for sure
- QuietArb · 7 months ago
Still a lot of room for surprises.
- lox-frogs · 7 months ago
Which is nil?
- Maraq · 7 months ago
Biggest risk for june meeting is that Warsh won't be there
As of Sep 29, 11:09 PM UTC