PolymarketOpen

SBF released from custody in 2026?

No98%

Yes2%

Price checked at Sep 29, 08:21 PM UTC

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24h volume$40.5

7d volume$448.7

30d volume$14.8K

Liquidity$4.7K

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue activity

Read from the venue 5 days ago

Holders305

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments2

Best bid 98% · best ask 99%

Top holders

aangelika21151456848236168548423451647114836520871041888041114607136931158069579966983
xcnstrategy21151456848236168548423451647114836520871041888041114607136931158069579966983
Anjun21151456848236168548423451647114836520871041888041114607136931158069579966983
Lasting-Dessert21151456848236168548423451647114836520871041888041114607136931158069579966983
ImJustKen61499606040051702307930629087386501931246189254487362902880030245940032662961

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL97%$17.57 days ago
SELL2%$6.77 days ago
SELL3%$1.18 days ago
SELL2%$08 days ago
SELL97%$19 days ago
BUY99%$19 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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2 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

firewoods · 2 months ago
because the name changer Drumf likes money
4751346 · 7 months ago
why would drumf pardon the democrats biggest donor?

As of Sep 29, 09:10 PM UTC