Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
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Probability history
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Resolution rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.Venue activity
Read from the venue 3 days agoBest bid 25% · best ask 26%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296640248862204095545824507770609491521282553259429991780219438297794719904718932
- anoin12340248862204095545824507770609491521282553259429991780219438297794719904718932
- Metallic-Lobster-Manipulation49821065181473419798146957267480015506102711160660718636601116902870701340131
- 6576575749821065181473419798146957267480015506102711160660718636601116902870701340131
- ScottyNooo49821065181473419798146957267480015506102711160660718636601116902870701340131
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL74%$17.83 days ago
- BUY26%$3.43 days ago
- BUY75%$2.13 days ago
- BUY26%$49.93 days ago
- SELL25%$590.53 days ago
- BUY75%$1283 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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63 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Mortified-Headline · 4 days ago
76%🇧🇷
- K1KE · 8 days ago
Mas que todo Lula asegura el voto de los mas pobres en la escala social, pero puede dividir un poco a la gente de clase media sobretodo a los jovenes quienes sus mayores preocupaciones son economicas, no por nada la gente joven se preocupa por temas de empleo, vivienda, etc. Para mi no creo que tenga el efecto que el quiere y simplemente Lula esta haciendo un ultimo esfuerzo de ahogado para ver si lo apoyan.
- Oi.hughie · 9 days ago
lula yes is still very cheap.
- Oi.hughie · 10 days ago
bolsonaro did the same, no equivalent result (better not bet on foregin elections)
- DarkFish · 11 days ago
Lula may fail to secure the second turn, but he will be above Flavio in the first turn. Looks like the rise of governamental assistance program will “buy” the votes to secure his position for now…
- rianstanley · 11 days ago
xd
- ZiK. · 12 days ago
xd
- .kalvaxio · 14 days ago
wrote "find sybils earn bounties" and anyone else it came when you least expected
- .kalvaxio · 14 days ago
wrote "find sybils earn bounties" and is the reward that doesnt make you do 30 tasks
- .kalvaxio · 14 days ago
i wrote "sybilhunt" and got a small but nice freebie
- Complete-Honey · 17 days ago
Vai lá procurar seu psicólogo que você está precisando. Sua previsão foi uma bosta. Lê de novo as merdas que você escreveu. "Michele Conservadora kkkk. Tá mais para uma feminista. "
- K1KE · 19 days ago
xd
- Tremendous-Duty · 27 days ago
Na verdade só conta pro primeiro turno, que bosta. Dito isso, Flávio está extremamente barato. Lula "Não" também está barato. 😂
- Tremendous-Duty · 27 days ago
Lula está extremamente barato. Estou comprando aqui. Segundo turno tende a afunilar, independente do candidato a margem será pequena.
- Noxious-Pathway · 3 months ago
meu deus os caras apostam até em quem fica no segundo lugar. coitado do flavio ksksksksks
- xcvb9876 · 3 months ago
who know
- Felipe7 · 3 months ago
Kkkkkk vcs estão perdidos, vc tem 44 cotas do Lula, acorda amigo, é uma agenda sat😈 ambos os lados. Vc tá sonhando ai( isso serve pra você também @Eu me afundei) realmente se afundou mesmo no lugar do cérebro 🧠 tem 💩
- Felipe7 · 3 months ago
Kkkkkk vcs estão perdidos, vc tem 44 cotas do Lula, acorda amigo, é uma agenda sat😈 ambos os lados. Vc tá sonhando ai
- Felipe7 · 3 months ago
Vamos ver então
- subii · 3 months ago
isso não é uma analise fria, ao contraio, isso é uma analise sentimental fraca. ela ate pode ser vice, ganhar é outra conversa.
As of Sep 29, 08:27 PM UTC