PolymarketOpen

Major CEX insolvent in 2026?

No97%

Yes3%

Price checked at Sep 29, 08:20 PM UTC

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24h volume$5.4

7d volume$14.1

30d volume$264.2

Liquidity$17.4K

Spread2%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if official information released by any of the following major centralized exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, Bybit, OKX, or Kraken, official representatives of such exchange (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that the exchange is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

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As of Sep 29, 08:30 PM UTC