Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

No99%
Yes1%

Price checked at

Trade
Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →
Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.
24h volume$260
7d volume$1.6K
30d volume$48.3K
Liquidity$50.4K
Spread0%
ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 22Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria differ in no material way. Polymarket lists a nominal resolution time of December 31, 2026, while PredictFun lists none, but this does not alter the event being measured.
  • PredictFunOpen →

    Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

    This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

    read Sep 29, 09:12 PM UTC

  • Polymarketthis market

    Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

    This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

    335 holders · 47 comments · read Sep 22, 09:55 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Polymarket51% NoOpen
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Polymarket56% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders335
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments45

Best bid 1% · best ask 1%

Top holders

  • 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296613198492243104969870060845911010474387056538917694736927351969149091449558789
  • Bustling-Equipment105566978263195737306060355025251866920786572554094317700063379261082055492438
  • Contentious-Dinnerdate105566978263195737306060355025251866920786572554094317700063379261082055492438
  • tetrose105566978263195737306060355025251866920786572554094317700063379261082055492438
  • DualDelta105566978263195737306060355025251866920786572554094317700063379261082055492438

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • BUY1%$0.87 days ago
  • BUY1%$17 days ago
  • BUY1%$0.47 days ago
  • BUY1%$0.17 days ago
  • BUY1%$0.17 days ago
  • BUY1%$0.28 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

Sign in to join the discussion.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

45 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • altdel · 8 days ago

    There’s no “if” for degens.

  • clazzy1 · 9 days ago

    What if they dont IPO?

  • Pump · 9 days ago

    imagine losing 100k and it doesnt even get to IPO in 2026💀

  • .ybryven · 14 days ago

    i wrote "sybilhunt" and got a real small but sweet drop

  • .kalvaxio · 14 days ago

    i wrote "sybilhunt" and got a small real token drop

  • altdel · 19 days ago

    That’s the problem, NPM isn’t moving, while rumors of an IPO pause or delay keep growing.

  • ThanksGivingTurkey1001 · 20 days ago

    Well he rather sell now than hold to 0c. 1,31t in private

  • altdel · 22 days ago

    @Coram_Deo typical retard, panicked and dumped everything

  • Pump · 23 days ago

    95

  • ctre · 23 days ago

    should be at 70

  • LordProtector · 29 days ago

    SpaceX: ~$30–35B Revenue in 2026, ~+50–90% growth. Anthropic: ~$65B+ ARR, ~+620% growth.

  • altdel · last month

    Don’t forget to sell before it’s too late.

  • ThanksGivingTurkey1001 · last month

    From 1,11t to 1,25t mcap in private for anthropic within 10days. Let’s go

  • ThanksGivingTurkey1001 · last month

    1.25t in private

  • no1yet · last month

    It’s all good, man. The bets are in.

  • ThanksGivingTurkey1001 · last month

    dont under estimate anthropic growth. but i got u, id also cope if i was on the verge of becoming a 1001th day thanksgiving turkey

  • no1yet · last month

    AI is a massive trend, no doubt. But SpaceX has been built over two decades. It’s more than just rockets and spacecraft: Starlink, xAI (Grok), X, and massive AI infrastructure.

  • Asahiko · last month

    SPCX has many narrative an enormous fan base and had time to get sell the dream, anthropic (heavy usuer here) still not at all an equivalent community, also all other Frontier labs at least on the public. (accessible) models have more or less catch up, I can see the 2.T headings not more and will prob be 1.5

  • ThanksGivingTurkey1001 · 2 months ago

    bruh 1,18T$ fdv in private already. Not ready

  • Probs · 2 months ago

    The other polymatket for whether Anthropic IPOs this year is at 80%

As of Sep 29, 09:24 PM UTC