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U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

No97%

Yes3%

Price checked at Sep 30, 12:02 AM UTC

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24h volume$5.6

7d volume$77.6

30d volume$510.3

Liquidity$21.4K

Spread0%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Venue activity

Read from the venue 8 days ago

Holders64

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 3% · best ask 3%

Top holders

DFK14736241429310554171990083530542578523648578491399167317905678783602686797349
0x49e3c324ad3a68fa6e0a9f7e7bed98bda4be76a713909857482278864900456398977603494409642154730385470517536181861055735147785
Kaleidoscopic-Kiss13909857482278864900456398977603494409642154730385470517536181861055735147785
unsc14736241429310554171990083530542578523648578491399167317905678783602686797349
0xe5b4a77296bab37056e72acc10dce5babf0ba85a13909857482278864900456398977603494409642154730385470517536181861055735147785

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL97%$33.49 days ago
SELL3%$8.114 days ago
BUY3%$1.214 days ago
BUY3%$128 days ago
BUY98%$529 days ago
SELL5%$1.6last month

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As of Sep 30, 12:19 AM UTC