PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Anthropic96%

OpenAI4%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:00 PM UTC

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24h volume$8.4K

7d volume$12.4K

30d volume$72.3K

Liquidity$61.3K

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 1, 2028next year

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria differ in no material way; Polymarket lists an administrative resolution timestamp, while PredictFun does not provide one.

PredictFunOpen →
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
read Sep 29, 09:22 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
455 holders · 3 comments · read Sep 28, 01:30 PM UTC

Venue activity

Read from the venue yesterday

Holders455

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

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Comments3

Best bid 95% · best ask 95%

Top holders

Paul97397351304003362239709880504968390039580061990214698769992358487552410838121726408
ImJustKen73754938275807077650190174893895455805053860210065772290515020396402080724560
thebetter123451304003362239709880504968390039580061990214698769992358487552410838121726408
yoyobb201851304003362239709880504968390039580061990214698769992358487552410838121726408
vengo73754938275807077650190174893895455805053860210065772290515020396402080724560

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Discussion on Predxy

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3 comments

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mewmew1 · 4 months ago
ngmi
MRKATSS · 4 months ago
Still bullish on OpenAI. 27% looks undervalued.
MRKATSS · 4 months ago
OpenIA jes

As of Sep 29, 10:18 PM UTC