PolymarketOpen

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

No93%

Yes7%

Price checked at Sep 30, 03:37 PM UTC

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24h volume$5.6K

7d volume$53.9K

30d volume$153.8K

Liquidity$62.2K

Spread2%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 hours ago

Holders584

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments7

Best bid 92% · best ask 94%

Top holders

LlamaLoco000059573580306448637210106211846184223086456880319167309095381061981348540313643
NeH50581562386301423614620561545485561734060713130040768529204518300505097491900
Donny.T50581562386301423614620561545485561734060713130040768529204518300505097491900
gorovi50581562386301423614620561545485561734060713130040768529204518300505097491900
Impure-Anniversary59573580306448637210106211846184223086456880319167309095381061981348540313643

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY94%$1.5K5 hours ago
BUY8%$27710 hours ago
SELL93%$325.511 hours ago
SELL6%$0.121 hours ago
SELL6%$1321 hours ago
BUY94%$1022 hours ago

Discussion on Predxy

What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.

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7 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

AyatollahDollar · 4 months ago
@volku dude, going to reverse-copytrade you
BetsAhead · 4 months ago
Armenia, but it is not likely.
pjotrekkk · 6 months ago
Estonia. Navra. most of people there are ethinc russians and it is a border city
leksus · 6 months ago
what a nonsense
Volku · 7 months ago
any Baltic states esp. Latvia or Estonia or Russian part of Moldova - Nadniestrze
DontTrustMe · 7 months ago
Which country people think of realistically?
Master-bettor · 7 months ago
i believe in you russia

As of Sep 30, 04:04 PM UTC