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Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Yes98%
No2%

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24h volume$5.3K
7d volume$54.3K
30d volume$100.3K
Liquidity$83.6K
Spread0%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Venue activity

Holders370
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments19

Best bid 2% · best ask 2%

Top holders

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  • HoneybeeAlliance45471041569001421989648235550735110887737570355776866168505165346480652778613
  • Ondra45471041569001421989648235550735110887737570355776866168505165346480652778613
  • macrosteaks45471041569001421989648235550735110887737570355776866168505165346480652778613
  • DFK58527611073420283009369936461084764824964857567606734891598926759299731813608

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Recent trades

  • SELL98%$14.62 days ago
  • BUY2%$52 days ago
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  • BUY2%$3.63 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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19 comments

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.
  • True-Supernatural · 4 months ago

    Now getting mine after following tourists on X /post/status/2063934558093869379

  • Sevencostanza · 5 months ago

    Yeah we need more clarity here like @cryptonesiac says, what if elections are cancelled in one or more states but not all states? If that happened, would the midterms be considered "not to have occurred as scheduled" because for the voters in impacted districts this was the case?

  • adulnevergiveup · 5 months ago

    我认为不会如期进行,随着战争的进行,美国民众对于川普的意见其实是变得越来越大的;而川普是一个非常擅长作弊的人,他一定会采取一些措施来推迟或者规避中期选举

  • AmericaOnly · 7 months ago

    Buying no as a bet that some false flags happen in USA triggering Martial Law

  • nw91 · 7 months ago

    Reminder that this has been a decent proxy for US Civil War up to that one getting nuked, and also that we need "Which markets will Poly shut down before resolution?" including this one

  • DoigenesVS · 8 months ago

    Trump said “We should take over the voting, the voting in at least many — 15 places. The Republicans ought to nationalize the voting.”

  • GollumGekko · 8 months ago

    u might be cookin bro, fill me!

  • Helgef · 8 months ago

    What if the elections take place on election day but it is widely understood that they will have no effect due to government shut down initiated purposefully by the trump admin?

  • Snow-White · 8 months ago

    $ -7 btw, which is a lot of money to you

  • Snow-White · 8 months ago

    that's right little broke phaggot, get your Two Minutes Hate in for Russia and North Korea - anything to keep your low-IQ mind occupied from thinking about what a POOR, STUPID, IMPOVERISHED dumb piece of SHIT you are, HA HA HA! Have fun STAYING POOR while FANTASIZING about the quality of life the Russians and North Koreans have and you will NEVER EVER GET!

  • cryptonesiac · 9 months ago

    but in some states the elections would not occur at all. Not rigged or manipulated, but cancelled or postponed. Still hope Polymarket comes with better defined rules

  • hl133 · 9 months ago

    As scheduled implies they happen the exact date. That scenario would just mean the elections occured but are being rigged

  • cryptonesiac · 9 months ago

    "happen as scheduled" - what exactly is scheduled? Say 40 States are allowed to vote, the others are occupied by the army and are not allowed to vote. Does it mean it's still happening as scheduled, or would the market resolve in a NO

  • hl133 · 9 months ago

    I mean of course the elections still occured. Elections occur in Russia and North Korea as well.

  • cryptonesiac · 9 months ago

    What if for example one State is excluded (nothing is impossible with that orange clown). Did the elections happen as scheduled or not?

  • hl133 · 9 months ago

    Even if voters are supressed its irrelevant to the election happening

  • hl133 · 9 months ago

    Why? This clearly only bets on the election happening not that voter suppression or rigging wont occur

  • cryptonesiac · 9 months ago

    More specific rules are needed on this one

  • Madoge · 9 months ago

    If immigration agents really show up at California polls like Newsom is predicting, it might as well be 'canceled' for thousands of voters.

As of Sep 30, 03:02 AM UTC