Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 7.0% and 8.0%?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 2.0% and 3.0%? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 8.0% and 9.0%? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be 9% or higher? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 1.0% and 2.0%? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? | Polymarket | 94% No | Open |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | Polymarket | 92% Yes | Open |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 6.0% and 7.0%? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue this minuteDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
13 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- win-win-win99 · 25 days ago
哈哈哈
- rinkenko · last month
这个增长是实际还是名义
- Lilian0129 · 2 months ago
这就是在送钱,Q2才增长4.3%
- .abryxox · 2 months ago
you know where is drop?
- Lilian0129 · 2 months ago
这你也信?有没有点脑子,今年就让你看跌破5%,Q2才增长4.3
- Shady-Fish · 3 months ago
五号电池这个外号不是白叫的
- Shady-Fish · 3 months ago
5, as per the rule says, it will get to the upper bracket if it lands on the middle
- Evergreen-Equity · 3 months ago
担心很有道理
- stellarisxc · 4 months ago
如果正好5%会结算在5%-6%选项。定的目标是全年4.5-5%,对统计局年末凑数据表示担心
- JianpingDai · 4 months ago
If the published figure is 5%, then is the result calculated as 4%-5% or 5%-6%?😅
- NIFENGFANPAN · 6 months ago
crazy buying
- Chims · 6 months ago
什么傻逼在买5以上?
- Furmaner · 7 months ago
Goated!!
As of Sep 29, 11:00 PM UTC